BENGGALA, DIONYSIUS RAKSAKA (2024) The Influence Of Inflation, Interest Rates, Exchange Rates, And Money Supply On Stock Prices Of The Infobank15 Index For The Period 2013 - 2023. Skripsi thesis, Universitas Jenderal Soedirman.

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Abstract

One important aspect of macroeconomic theory is the view that the free market system cannot realize price stability and steady economic growth. Countries are often faced with problems such as unemployment, rising prices, and unstable economic growth, which are part of the macroeconomic problems that affect overall economic welfare. In this context, the capital market has an important role in maintaining economic stability through increasing the ability of companies to adapt to market dynamics and as an alternative source of financing. This study aims to analyze the long-run and short-run effects of macroeconomic factors, namely inflation, interest rates, and exchange rates on the performance of bank stocks in the INFOBANK15 index in Indonesia during the period January 2013-December 2023. The method in this study is a type of quantitative research using secondary data, and tested with the ARDL model. The results show that stock price movements in the capital market are strongly influenced by these macroeconomic factors. (1) Inflation has a negative effect on stock prices and has no long-run effect. (2) Interest rates have a negative impact on stock prices and have no short-run or long-run influence. (3) The exchange rate has a negative impact on stock prices and has a short-run effect and has no long-run effect. (4) Money supply has a positive effect on stock prices and has a long-run effect. The implications of the research results are that the government and monetary authorities need to prioritize policies that keep inflation stable and low to support capital market stability which in turn can attract more investment, the central bank must be careful in raising interest rates, because higher interest rates can adversely affect the stock market and potentially disrupt economic stability, Policies such as managing foreign currency reserves or intervening in the foreign exchange market intended to maintain exchange rate stability must be taken into account by the government and monetary authorities, the central bank must adopt a proactive and balanced monetary policy. The aim is to stabilize the economy and financial markets while managing inflation from becoming excessive when liquidity increases. Keywords: Inflation, Interest Rate, Exchange Rate, Money Supply, INFOBANK15

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