ABIGAIL, Aurelia Mayza (2025) Analysis of Exchange Rate Determinants From 2021 to 2023. Skripsi thesis, Universitas Jenderal Soedirman.

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Abstract

The fluctuation of the Rupiah exchange rate against the US Dollar during the 2019–2023 period was influenced by various domestic and global factors, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, the Federal Reserve's tight monetary policy, and the geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine. This study is titled: “Analysis of Exchange Rate Determinants from 2021 to 2023.” The objective of this research is to examine the influence of net exports, inflation, interest rates, and global oil prices on the Rupiah exchange rate. The data used in this study are secondary data in the form of time series data from 2021 to 2023. The variables analyzed consist of the exchange rate as the dependent variable (Y), and net exports (X1), inflation (X2), interest rate (X3), and world oil prices (X4) as the independent variables. The analytical method employed in this study is the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. Based on the results of the ARDL analysis, the study finds that: (1) net exports do not have a significant effect on the exchange rate, (2) inflation has a negative and significant effect in the long run, (3) interest rates have a positive and significant effect in both the short run and long run, and (4) global oil prices have a negative but statistically insignificant effect on the exchange rate in the short run. The implications of these findings indicate that consistent inflation control is a key factor in maintaining exchange rate stability, given its significant long-term impact. Therefore, stabilizing the prices of essential goods and strengthening the coordination between fiscal and monetary policies are crucial to maintaining overall macroeconomic stability. Additionally, although global oil prices were not found to have a significant effect during the research period, Indonesia’s dependence on energy imports remains a concern. Thus, efforts to diversify national energy sources and strengthen foreign exchange reserves should continue to be promoted to enhance external resilience. The finding that interest rates have a positive and significant effect on the exchange rate also underscores the vital role of monetary policy, particularly in attracting capital inflows and maintaining the attractiveness of domestic assets. Furthermore, this study provides empirical contributions for academics and researchers, while also opening opportunities for future research to consider other variables such as capital flows, geopolitical risks, and global market sentiment that were not covered in this study.

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